What Changes If You Buy Five Years Later?

Buying five years later sounds like a delay. Financially, it is closer to a bet. You are betting that the money you don't put into a home today can grow fast enough to keep pace with the home you might want later. You are also betting on mortgage rates, rent, investment returns and what happens to home prices in the meantime.

So instead of asking whether someone should buy now or wait, let's ask something we can actually examine: What changes if the same household buys five years later?

First, Meet the Couple

Our hypothetical couple lives in Vancouver. They're both in their mid-30s and earn a combined $200,000 a year. They currently rent a two-bedroom apartment. They have enough cash available for a 20% down payment on an $850,000 condo.

They could buy now. They could also continue renting, keep their down payment invested and save the difference between renting and owning for another five years.

We're going to follow both versions of the same household to the same point five years from now. This is not a forecast. It's a model designed to show which assumptions actually move the result. For the wider life decision, consider what changes when renting is a long-term choice.

The $3,614 Mortgage Costs About $4,540 a Month to Carry

Start with the purchase. An $850,000 condo with 20% down requires:

• Purchase price: $850,000
• Down payment: $170,000
• Mortgage: $680,000

Using a modelled mortgage rate of 4.1% and a 25-year amortization, the mortgage payment is approximately: $3,614 per month.

But the mortgage isn't the ownership cost. Add our modelled monthly expenses:

• Mortgage: ~$3,614
• Strata: ~$510
• Property tax: ~$238
• Condo insurance: ~$75
• Interior maintenance reserve: ~$100

Total: Approximately $4,537 per month in Year 1. We've rounded that to about $4,540.

The strata assumption is based on roughly $0.60 per square foot for an 850-square-foot unit. Insurance and maintenance are modelling assumptions. The $238 monthly property-tax amount is a budgeting assumption, not a verified tax bill or a calculation from the 2026 tax rate. Actual tax depends on assessed value and applicable levies.

Meanwhile, Renting Costs About $3,030

Statistics Canada reported an average asking rent of approximately $3,030 for a two-bedroom rental in Vancouver in the second quarter of 2026.

That gives our couple a Year 1 difference of approximately:

$4,537 ownership cost
minus
$3,030 rent
= about $1,507 per month.

This is where rent-versus-buy comparisons often go wrong. If the renter simply spends that $1,507, waiting produces one result. If they invest it, waiting produces another. So our renters are going to invest it.

Waiting Only Works Financially If You Actually Save the Difference

Our renting household begins with approximately $187,500 invested. That represents:

$170,000 down payment
+
approximately $17,500 of modelled purchase closing costs they did not spend.

Then they invest the monthly difference between renting and owning. For the base case, we'll assume:

• 5% annual investment return
• 2.2% annual rent growth
• 3% annual strata-fee growth
• 2% annual growth in property tax, insurance and maintenance

Again: assumptions, not forecasts. After five years, the renter's investment portfolio reaches approximately: $335,823. That is the number the ownership path needs to be compared against.

Five Years of Mortgage Payments Builds About $87,000 in Principal

The homeowner has been building an asset too. After 60 monthly payments, the mortgage balance falls from $680,000 to approximately: $592,993.

That means the household has repaid roughly: $87,007 of principal. Over the same period, it has paid approximately: $129,827 in mortgage interest.

Principal builds equity. Interest doesn't.

Now we need to know what happened to the condo itself. And that's where one answer becomes three.

Scenario 1: The Condo Doesn't Increase in Value

Suppose the $850,000 condo is still worth $850,000 five years later. Mortgage remaining: ~$592,993. Gross home equity: ~$257,007.

Our renter, meanwhile, has approximately: $335,823 invested. Before selling costs, the renter is ahead by roughly $79,000 in liquid financial assets versus the owner's home equity.

If we illustrate a 4% cost to sell the property, the owner's net position falls to approximately: $223,007. Under those assumptions, the renter is ahead by roughly: $113,000.

Waiting worked. But only because several things happened together:

• home prices were flat,
• the renter consistently invested,
• and the investment portfolio earned 5%.

Change one of those and the result moves.

Scenario 2: The Condo Grows 3% a Year

At 3% annual appreciation, the $850,000 condo is worth approximately: $985,383 after five years. Subtract the remaining mortgage and the homeowner has gross equity of approximately: $392,389.

Using the same illustrative 4% selling cost, the owner's net position is approximately: $352,974. The renter still has approximately: $335,823.

Now the owner is ahead by roughly: $17,000. Not by hundreds of thousands. About $17,000. A moderate change in one assumption has flipped the result.

Scenario 3: The Condo Grows 6% a Year

At 6% annual growth, the condo reaches approximately: $1,137,492. After the remaining mortgage, gross equity is approximately: $544,498. After our illustrative 4% selling cost: approximately $498,999.

The renter remains around: $335,823. The homeowner is now ahead by roughly: $163,000.

Same household. Same starting point. Same five years. Different housing-market assumption. Very different ending.

Investment Returns Change the Answer Too

Home prices aren't the only variable. Let's change the renter's investment return. Using the same basic model, the approximate five-year advantage looks like this:

• HOME PRICE GROWTH 0% / INVESTMENT RETURN 3%
  Renting ahead by approximately $86,000.
• HOME PRICE GROWTH 0% / INVESTMENT RETURN 5%
  Renting ahead by approximately $113,000.
• HOME PRICE GROWTH 0% / INVESTMENT RETURN 7%
  Renting ahead by approximately $141,000.
• HOME PRICE GROWTH 3% / INVESTMENT RETURN 3%
  Owning ahead by approximately $44,000.
• HOME PRICE GROWTH 3% / INVESTMENT RETURN 5%
  Owning ahead by approximately $17,000.
• HOME PRICE GROWTH 3% / INVESTMENT RETURN 7%
  Renting ahead by approximately $11,000.
• HOME PRICE GROWTH 6% / INVESTMENT RETURN 3%
  Owning ahead by approximately $190,000.
• HOME PRICE GROWTH 6% / INVESTMENT RETURN 5%
  Owning ahead by approximately $163,000.
• HOME PRICE GROWTH 6% / INVESTMENT RETURN 7%
  Owning ahead by approximately $135,000.

There isn't one rent-versus-buy answer hiding in this table. There are nine.

The Renter Still Has to Buy a Home Five Years Later

There is another number that matters if the renter's plan is eventually to buy. The future purchase price. If the same $850,000 home experiences no price growth, a 20% down payment remains: $170,000.

At 3% annual growth, the home reaches roughly $985,383. A 20% down payment becomes approximately: $197,077.

At 6%, the home reaches roughly $1,137,492. Twenty percent becomes approximately: $227,498.

The renter's portfolio has been growing. But so has the target. That's the part that can make waiting psychologically strange. You can save more money and still watch the required down payment increase.

Buying Now Has an Upfront Cost Too

For the base case, we allow $17,500 for closing: $15,000 in BC property transfer tax before exemptions, plus a Rooofread allowance of $2,500 for legal, inspection and other purchase costs. The tax is 1% of the first $200,000 and 2% of the remaining $650,000, assuming the purchase price equals fair market value. Fees and adjustments vary.

The household’s eligibility for an exemption is not established. Under the official BC table, an $850,000 purchase can instead attract a $3,200 first-time-buyer exemption, leaving $11,800 tax. With the same $2,500 allowance, that would mean $14,300 in closing costs. That treatment is conditional and is not used in our base case.

The First Time Home Buyers’ Program exempts tax on the first $500,000 for qualifying homes worth up to $835,000; the exemption phases out above $835,000 and below $860,000. Buyers must be Canadian citizens or permanent residents, have lived in BC for the preceding year or filed as BC residents in at least two of the preceding six tax years, never have owned a registered interest in a principal residence anywhere, and never have received this exemption or refund. The home must meet land-size and residential-use conditions; occupancy requirements generally include moving in within 92 days and remaining through the first year. A partly eligible purchase receives a reduced exemption. Check the full rules for your circumstances.

Rules reviewed September 17, 2026. Programs and eligibility can change. Our example assumes a resale condo and excludes GST on new homes, additional transfer tax and any other rebates or grants; these depend on the property and buyer.

Selling can cost money too, which is why we've shown an illustrative 4% selling-cost scenario when comparing the owner's liquid exit position. Neither number should be treated as universal. The point is that moving into and out of ownership isn't free.

Then There's the Qualification Question

Having $170,000 available doesn't automatically mean a lender will approve the mortgage. For most new uninsured mortgages at federally regulated lenders, the mortgage stress test means qualifying at the greater of 5.25% or the contract rate plus two percentage points. At our modelled 4.1% mortgage rate, that means qualifying at approximately 6.1%.

Our couple is assumed to qualify. In real life, debts, credit, condo fees and other obligations would affect the calculation. Our Toronto condo cost breakdown shows how much the monthly budget can extend beyond the mortgage.

So What Are You Actually Betting on When You Wait?

Not just home prices. You're betting on several things at once.

• That your investments grow.
• That you actually invest the monthly savings.
• That rent doesn't rise too quickly.
• That the kind of home you want doesn't outrun your savings.
• That mortgage rates and qualification rules still work for you later.
• And that your life still points toward the same home five years from now.

Buying now has its own bets.

• That you'll stay long enough for the transaction to make sense.
• That ownership costs don't surprise you.
• That tying up your down payment doesn't prevent you from doing something more useful with the money.
• That the home still fits your life in five years.

The useful question isn't simply whether buying now beats buying later. It's which assumptions have to come true for either decision to work. That is the bet. Use What If I Keep Renting? to explore how your own assumptions change the comparison.

Before choosing a timeline, build the full cost of buying, from closing day to renewal.