BUY IN 2026 → 2031
versusRENT + INVEST → 2031
Buying five years later sounds like a delay. Financially, it is closer to a bet. You are betting that the money you don't put into a home today can grow fast enough to keep pace with the home you might want later. You are also betting on mortgage rates, rent, investment returns and what happens to home prices in the meantime.
So instead of asking whether someone should buy now or wait, let's ask something we can actually examine: What changes if the same household buys five years later?
First, meet the couple
Our hypothetical couple lives in Vancouver. They're both in their mid-30s and earn a combined $200,000 a year. They currently rent a two-bedroom apartment. They have enough cash available for a 20% down payment on an $850,000 condo.
They could buy now. They could also continue renting, keep their down payment invested and save the difference between renting and owning for another five years.
We're going to follow both versions of the same household to the same point five years from now. This is not a forecast. It's a model designed to show which assumptions actually move the result.
The $3,614 mortgage costs about $4,540 a month to carry
Start with the purchase. An $850,000 condo with 20% down requires:
- Purchase price: $850,000
- Down payment: $170,000
- Mortgage: $680,000
Using a modelled mortgage rate of 4.1% and a 25-year amortization, the mortgage payment is approximately: $3,614 per month.
But the mortgage isn't the ownership cost. Add our modelled monthly expenses:
- Mortgage: ~$3,614
- Strata: ~$510
- Property tax: ~$238
- Condo insurance: ~$75
- Interior maintenance reserve: ~$100
Total: Approximately $4,537 per month in Year 1. We've rounded that to about $4,540.
The strata assumption is based on roughly $0.60 per square foot for an 850-square-foot unit. Insurance and maintenance are modelling assumptions. The property-tax estimate uses Vancouver's 2026 residential property-tax rate.
Meanwhile, renting costs about $3,030
Statistics Canada reported an average asking rent of approximately $3,030 for a two-bedroom rental in Vancouver in the second quarter of 2026.
That gives our couple a Year 1 difference of approximately:
$4,537 ownership cost
minus
$3,030 rent
= about $1,507 per month.
This is where rent-versus-buy comparisons often go wrong. If the renter simply spends that $1,507, waiting produces one result. If they invest it, waiting produces another. So our renters are going to invest it.
Waiting only works financially if you actually save the difference
Our renting household begins with approximately $184,300 invested. That represents:
$170,000 down payment
+
approximately $14,300 of modelled purchase closing costs they did not spend.
Then they invest the monthly difference between renting and owning. For the base case, we'll assume:
- 5% annual investment return
- 2.2% annual rent growth
- 3% annual strata-fee growth
- 2% annual growth in property tax, insurance and maintenance
Again: assumptions, not forecasts. After five years, the renter's investment portfolio reaches approximately: $331,759. That is the number the ownership path needs to be compared against.
Five years of mortgage payments builds about $87,000 in principal
The homeowner has been building an asset too. After 60 monthly payments, the mortgage balance falls from $680,000 to approximately: $592,993.
That means the household has repaid roughly: $87,007 of principal. Over the same period, it has paid approximately: $129,827 in mortgage interest.
Principal builds equity. Interest doesn't.
Now we need to know what happened to the condo itself. And that's where one answer becomes three.
Scenario 1: The condo doesn't increase in value
Suppose the $850,000 condo is still worth $850,000 five years later. Mortgage remaining: ~$592,993. Gross home equity: ~$257,007.
Our renter, meanwhile, has approximately: $331,759 invested. Before selling costs, the renter is ahead by roughly $75,000 in liquid financial assets versus the owner's home equity.
If we illustrate a 4% cost to sell the property, the owner's net position falls to approximately: $223,007. Under those assumptions, the renter is ahead by roughly: $109,000.
Waiting worked. But only because several things happened together:
- home prices were flat,
- the renter consistently invested,
- and the investment portfolio earned 5%.
Change one of those and the result moves.
Scenario 2: The condo grows 3% a year
At 3% annual appreciation, the $850,000 condo is worth approximately: $985,383 after five years. Subtract the remaining mortgage and the homeowner has gross equity of approximately: $392,389.
Using the same illustrative 4% selling cost, the owner's net position is approximately: $352,974. The renter still has approximately: $331,759.
Now the owner is ahead by roughly: $21,000. Not by hundreds of thousands. About $21,000. A moderate change in one assumption has flipped the result.
Scenario 3: The condo grows 6% a year
At 6% annual growth, the condo reaches approximately: $1,137,492. After the remaining mortgage, gross equity is approximately: $544,498. After our illustrative 4% selling cost: approximately $498,999.
The renter remains around: $331,759. The homeowner is now ahead by roughly: $167,000.
Same household. Same starting point. Same five years. Different housing-market assumption. Very different ending.
Investment returns change the answer too
Home prices aren't the only variable. Let's change the renter's investment return. Using the same basic model, the approximate five-year advantage looks like this:
- HOME PRICE GROWTH 0% / INVESTMENT RETURN 3%
Renting ahead by approximately $82,000. - HOME PRICE GROWTH 0% / INVESTMENT RETURN 5%
Renting ahead by approximately $109,000. - HOME PRICE GROWTH 0% / INVESTMENT RETURN 7%
Renting ahead by approximately $137,000. - HOME PRICE GROWTH 3% / INVESTMENT RETURN 3%
Owning ahead by approximately $47,000. - HOME PRICE GROWTH 3% / INVESTMENT RETURN 5%
Owning ahead by approximately $21,000. - HOME PRICE GROWTH 3% / INVESTMENT RETURN 7%
Renting ahead by approximately $7,000. - HOME PRICE GROWTH 6% / INVESTMENT RETURN 3%
Owning ahead by approximately $194,000. - HOME PRICE GROWTH 6% / INVESTMENT RETURN 5%
Owning ahead by approximately $167,000. - HOME PRICE GROWTH 6% / INVESTMENT RETURN 7%
Owning ahead by approximately $139,000.
There isn't one rent-versus-buy answer hiding in this table. There are nine.
The renter still has to buy a home five years later
There is another number that matters if the renter's plan is eventually to buy. The future purchase price. If the same $850,000 home experiences no price growth, a 20% down payment remains: $170,000.
At 3% annual growth, the home reaches roughly $985,383. A 20% down payment becomes approximately: $197,077.
At 6%, the home reaches roughly $1,137,492. Twenty percent becomes approximately: $227,498.
The renter's portfolio has been growing. But so has the target. That's the part that can make waiting psychologically strange. You can save more money and still watch the required down payment increase.
Buying now has an upfront cost too
The ownership side shouldn't get a free pass. Buying requires transaction costs. For this model, we include approximately $14,300 in closing costs for a qualifying first-time buyer, including modelled legal, inspection and other purchase costs.
Those figures should be verified against current BC Property Transfer Tax rules before publication and clearly labelled according to the buyer's eligibility.
Selling can cost money too, which is why we've shown an illustrative 4% selling-cost scenario when comparing the owner's liquid exit position. Neither number should be treated as universal. The point is that moving into and out of ownership isn't free.
Then there's the qualification question
Having $170,000 available doesn't automatically mean a lender will approve the mortgage. Canadian borrowers generally have to qualify using the mortgage stress test. For an uninsured mortgage, that generally means qualifying at the greater of 5.25% or the contract rate plus two percentage points. At our modelled 4.1% mortgage rate, that means qualifying at approximately 6.1%.
Our couple is assumed to qualify. In real life, debts, credit, condo fees and other obligations would affect the calculation.
So what are you actually betting on when you wait?
Not just home prices. You're betting on several things at once.
- That your investments grow.
- That you actually invest the monthly savings.
- That rent doesn't rise too quickly.
- That the kind of home you want doesn't outrun your savings.
- That mortgage rates and qualification rules still work for you later.
- And that your life still points toward the same home five years from now.
Buying now has its own bets.
- That you'll stay long enough for the transaction to make sense.
- That ownership costs don't surprise you.
- That tying up your down payment doesn't prevent you from doing something more useful with the money.
- That the home still fits your life in five years.
The useful question isn't simply whether buying now beats buying later. It's which assumptions have to come true for either decision to work. That is the bet.
Illustrative five-year model — not a forecast.
Which assumption moves the result?
Five-year position
0% growth
Renter ~$331,759
Owner net ~$223,007
3% growth
Renter ~$331,759
Owner net ~$352,974
6% growth
Renter ~$331,759
Owner net ~$498,999
Sources & notes
All household examples and models in this story are illustrative, not forecasts or financial advice. Source figures should be read with their original reporting periods and definitions.